Here we are. It’s t-minus rapidly dwindling days until Super Bowl 58, and everyone in your office is suddenly a “sports bettor.” The Super Bowl is the most bet-on sporting event in the U.S. every year, and while a lot of that action is due to sheer viewership numbers, it’s also thanks to the absolute smorgasbord of betting markets available to almost anyone with a smartphone (in certain states, of course).
Beyond the betting basics like spread, total and moneyline, there are tons of player props, novelty bets and live betting options for the Super Bowl. For serious bettors, it’s a chance to dig deep into player analysis, head-to-head comparisons, statistics and mathematical models to find an edge. And for casual fans, there’s no shortage of ways to put your pride on the line while you crush a bowl of cheese dip.
To help you fine-tune your bets or just to give you something smart to say at your Super Bowl party, we’re covering everything you need to know about Super Bowl betting. Our experts are adding more analysis every day leading up to the big event, and we’re consolidating all of it here. Feel free to bookmark this page for continued reference.
Stay tuned, have fun and may the odds be ever in your favor!
The 49ers opened as the favorites with a 2-point spread, the line moved some right at open but it has been at 2 points all week. This article gives you the early top-line stuff you need to know about each team’s path to the Super Bowl and why we’ve seen so much movement on the line.
Early analysis of the Chiefs’ and 49ers’ status heading into the big game, plus a statistical model predicting each team’s likelihood of claiming the Lombardi this year.
Game and player prop bets
Predicting which Gatorade color will be dumped on the coach is one of the most random props available in the Super Bowl. But it is also one of the most fun props to bet on. Andy Reid was covered in Purple in Super Bowl LVII and Orange in LIV. What color will be used this year?
Jay Felicio analyzes how Deebo Samuel may be the x-factor for the 49ers against a tough Kansas City defense.
Travis Kelce will again be the center of attention at the Super Bowl after battling his brother last year. Will he be the Chiefs top receiving option or will he struggle against the 49ers defense?
The 49ers’ game plan is going to focus on McCaffrey, perhaps even more than usual. So it’s only logical to assume this will mean plenty of opportunities to get into the end zone. McCaffrey also is a legitimate threat to score whenever he touches the ball.
Austin Mock dives into his prediction model to make 10 picks for the best prop bets you can make on the Super Bowl. Check out his analysis on Brock Purdy, Noah Gray, Deebo Samuel, Isiah Pacheco, Jake Moody and more.
Surprising no one, it’s Patrick Mahomes sitting at the top of the Super Bowl MVP odds right now. Here, our team breaks down the outside chances for players like Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Travis Kelce. Quarterbacks tend to win it, but a case can be made for others, particularly on the 49ers’ offense. (But also, is it time to put a little more respect on Purdy’s name after he led the Niners from behind twice with mounting degrees of difficulty?)
Mahomes is the biggest star on the field for this Super Bowl, but the Chiefs’ matchup against the 49ers is more about their defense and running game. Khari Demos looks at Mahomes’ prop bets through that lens.
Keff Ciardello goes through the list of prop bets you can place on Purdy. How does he matchup with the Chiefs and how does that compare to the odds?
Michael Salfino digs into why the run game is going to matter in Super Bowl 58, and why Isiah Pacheco is a smart long shot MVP bet.
Khari Demos gives his analysis of the best touchdown props for Super Bowl 58, including who might score the first touchdown, who could score multiple touchdowns and a few dark horse picks.
The Super Bowl is a bounty of props. Our team picked five of the best prop bets to wager on right now. Get our picks on the first team to reach 20 points, whether we’ll see a punt-return touchdown, which team will challenge a play first, who scores the first touchdown and how many interceptions will be thrown.
There’s nothing like the kicking game to make a grown man cry. Michael Salfino gets nerdy with the numbers and explains why kicking impact is so tough to predict, plus what the math says on the perfect time to go for it vs. opting for a field goal.
Super Bowl squares
Dan Santaromita crunches the historical numbers on Super Bowl squares. Learn how to play, and how to give yourself the best chances at your Super Bowl party. He’s got charts, bullet points and takeaways. Be ready for absolutely too much math.
Fun party props
The 2024 Party Prop sheet is finally here! This downloadable prop sheet was a subscriber favorite last year. Get a massive list of questions for everyone to play at your Super Bowl party – plus, this year, subscribers can participate in The Athletic’s own party prop pool.
Which song will Usher sing first? Will the four-time platinum crooner be wearing sunglasses when we first get a glimpse of him? Will Alicia Keys join her former collaborator on the Super Bowl stage? If you need help filling out your party prop sheet for the halftime show, this piece will give you some context on the highlights we’re anticipating.
If you’re one of the millions of people who love Taylor Swift – or love someone who loves Taylor Swift – this one’s for you and it’s all about having a little fun with it. Use this list to build a “Taylor Swift effect” prop game at your Super Bowl party, or just to see what the Swifties will be watching for.
The Super Bowl coin toss has developed an air of seriousness and intense scrutiny since people started throwing lots of money on the bet. But it’s really the silliest bet you can make with a pure 50/50 shot at winning and not a great payout. We look at some of the shenanigans around the coin flip in past years (including a coin flip in space!) and ask, “What ever happened to fun?” (Nonetheless, if you want to bet on it, we’ve got the odds here.)
Is this a ridiculous thing to bet on? Of course! That’s what makes it fun? We dig into Reba’s history singing “The Star-Spangled Banner,” the length clocked by other anthem performers in recent years, and our pick for over/under.
The Super Bowl is unique for it’s odd prop bets. Keff Ciardello rounds up some of the most out-there bets you can make this year or add to your party props sheet.
Our team of experts gives their early picks, and it’s Kansas City taking a hefty lead. We’ve also got 10 analysts weighing in on score predictions and their justifications for their picks. Plus, some key insights to know ahead of the matchup. (Among them: What is happening with the Niners run defense? Nothing good, it seems.)
Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson get deep in the weeds on their picks for Super Bowl winner and spread, and then they just keep going. Should you be nervous that the public seems to be hammering the Chiefs when the public is often so very wrong? What about MVP? The outcome of the Chiefs first drive? The jersey number of the first touchdown scorer? The conversation is all here.
If Austin Mock had one bet to pick for Super Bowl 58, this would be it. Austin has a regular sports betting column where he uses an NFL projection model to make picks. See what his model is predicting here.
This year’s Super Bowl takes place at an indoor venue. It’s Mahomes’ first indoor Super Bowl, but he’s 4-0 in this particular stadium. We took a look at indoor vs. outdoor Super Bowl venues from a purely historical angle to ask: What difference does a dome make? (TLDR: Probably not much. But there are some nice fact nuggets in here to wow your friends with your knowledge of the game’s illustrious history.)
Let’s get weird: Leaving no stone unturned in Super Bowl coverage
We asked a leading UK graphologist to give us some fun talking points on six of the Super Bowl’s main characters.
Looking for a fun angle to boost the conversation at your Super Bowl party? A new perspective to approach the matchup? We spoke to a sports astrologer to analyze the the two Super Bowl coaches and what their star charts could say about Super Sunday. Because why not?
Super Bowl squares: Historical trends, the numbers you want — and the ones you don’t
Intro to Betting
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; Photos: Kara Durrette, Timothy T Ludwig/Bob Kupbens Jeff Speer via Getty Images)