Calling all bettors! The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a somewhat shocking 9-8 regular season and playoff berth. Can they build on this success in 2023? And more pressingly, how will free agency and the upcoming NFL Draft impact Seattle’s chances? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning this year’s Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
Entering last season, the Seahawks had the third-worst odds of winning Super Bowl 57 at +17000. Only the Falcons and Texans were bigger long shots.
These days, Seattle’s odds of winning the next Super Bowl (+7000) have significantly improved. Ah, but now they’re tied for the seventh-worst odds. How can this be?
Because a lot can change between now and the NFL draft. their fortunes are tied partly to a journeyman quarterback coming off a career year at age 32, a promising young running back, an exceptional receiving duo (one half of which will turn 31 in September), and a still shaky defense. They still have a of work to do.
So how should bettors respond? Let’s examine some key takeaways from 2022.
Geno Smith and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
First, a mea culpa. Like many (but not all) prognosticators, I didn’t give the Seahawks much of a shot for even six wins in 2022. In a division featuring the defending Super Bowl champs (Rams), a strong Super Bowl contender (49ers), and a still decent Cardinals team that started the previous year 7-0, Seattle would be fortunate to merely finish above last place.
But the Rams and Cards collapsed, and Seattle eked into the playoffs, thanks in part to two (almost literally) last-second wins over the Rams, as well as a one-point victory in Week 1 when Denver somehow lost two fumbles on successive drives at Seattle’s 1-yard line.
Of course, the Seahawks deserved their success, because, like most overachievers, they had to play really good football to win nine games. And while that preseason quarterback battle between Geno Smith and Drew Lock might not have seemed impactful at the time, we might imagine how this team would have faired if (respectfully) Lock had remained healthy and earned the Week 1 nod.
Because after wallowing in relative obscurity for most of his career — a former second-round draft pick who flopped in what was, in hindsight, a really tough situation with the partially rebuilding Jets in 2012 and 2013 — Smith led the league with a 69.8% completion rate. His sterling 4,282-30-11 passing line and 366 rushing yards elevated him to “very good” or perhaps even “great” QB status.
He went from a placeholder to a franchise QB, converting two or more TD passes in 13 of 18 contests. That level of consistency is rare. His predecessor, Russell Wilson, has thrown two or more TD passes in 13 of his last 30 contests. So yeah, Smith played heroically.
We cannot leave out DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. And Kenneth Walker might be one of the best young running backs in the game (he’s easily on my top 10 overall RB list).
But 2022 worked for Seattle because, in no small part, Smith rose to the moment.
2023 Offseason Moves
This brings us to a critically important phase in the Seahawks’ development ahead of 2023. Their terrific 4-2 divisional record last season might not be replicable this coming year, as the 49ers remain elite, and the Rams likely will rebound to some extent.
Seattle’s poor Super Bowl odds reflect these and other realities. So I’m watching to see how effectively they beef up their defense through free agency and the draft.
Also, will they upgrade at center, with Austin Blythe announcing a surprise retirement? And in their perennially top-heavy wideout corps, will the Seahawks add a top-40 receiver or draft an instant-impact rookie to give Smith a No. 3 WR more dependable than 32-year-old Marquise Goodwin? And/or will they snag their “quarterback of the future,” putting the heat on Smith to continue shining?
I believe Seattle’s +7000 odds realistically will improve. The question is how much. For now, assuming they crush the draft (they hold four of the top 52 picks, including No. 5), they’ll probably jump into the +4500 to +5200 range.
NFL Free Agency
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on key Seahawks arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Seahawks draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any players who could help catapult them to “solid long shot” status or better.