Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up on Saturday (March 4th) and Andrew has five stats-based selections at Newbury, Lingfield and Wolverhampton. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
STIMULATING SONG (system – 8yos in veterans’ handicap hurdles)
Veterans’ handicap hurdles are only open to horses aged eight or older and it’s the ‘younger veterans’ who fare best. Five of the six previous runnings of this race went to eight-year-olds and the five qualifiers last year included the first three home. Only four of the 11 runners fit the bill this year, with STIMULATING SONG, the biggest price of the quartet, worth a speculative interest in the hope that the wind operation brings about a return to form.
PAINT THE DREAM (system – course direction)
PAINT THE DREAM usually struggles when racing on right-handed tracks, recording form figures of 74321U2533 (1-10), including 0-5 over fences. When racing left-handed he’s won four of his 17 starts, including form figures of 111 (3-3) over fences at Newbury. He faces a tough rival in the shape of fellow course expert ZANZA but is still worth a small interest.
BUNGLE BAY (system – poorly drawn in 6f-1m handicap at Southwell last time out)
This winter it has been difficult to win from stall 10 or higher in a handicap over 6f-1m at Southwell. Since November 1st last year, only four of the 183 qualifiers have won (2.2% strike-rate) for a loss of £158.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 12.77). Those who are beaten from high draws often bounce back to win at the next time of asking, especially if running at a different track (+£38.25 to a £1 stake). BUNGLE BAY had little chance from stall 13 of 13 in a 6f Southwell handicap last time and that race is working out well. Stall 8 of 9 should ensure that he races away from the ‘dead’ inside rail and he’s going to be a big price if the market overreacts to his latest effort.
PASS ME BY (system – Richard Bandey, chases)
Richard Bandey has a fantastic record with his chasers and had we backed them all we’d have won 21 of our 103 bets and made a huge profit of £149.87 to a £1 level stake at SP. PASS ME BY has only had two runs on good ground for his current yard, winning at Huntingdon and finishing second by three-quarters of a length at Kempton on his latest outing. The first-time cheekpieces couid help and he looks a solid bet at around the 5-1 mark.
SASSY BABE (system – Ian Williams handicappers, March)
Ian Williams does well with his handicap runners in the month of March, scoring with 68 of the 372 qualifiers since 2010 (18.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £68.64 to a £1 level stake at SP. SASSY BABE finished well held in her three runs on the all-weather for Richard Hannon but all took place on Polytrack, whereas her breeding suggests Tapeta will suit. She can defy a 277-day break on her stable debut.
SOLANNA (system – John Butler, first-time tongue-tie, all-weather)
John Butler is seven from 25 when fitting one of his all-weather runners with a first-time tongue-tie and backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of £145.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. SOLANNA’s three all-weather wins have come at Kempton but he ran respectably on his only previous course outing and Danny Muscutt is a good booking.
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