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NFL Picks: Best Player Props For Week 14



This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Picks: Best Player Props For Week 14

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Player Anytime Touchdowns

David Montgomery -105 (FanDuel)

While these aren’t great odds, this line seems almost too good to be true. This is -150 on other sites and Montgomery scored (revenge game!) in the Lions’ first game with the Bears on 14 touches. Looking at his season-long stats, Montgomery has scored 10 touchdowns this season and scored in four straight games. He also has scored in eight out of nine games this season (89 percent), which is why a line of only -105 seems too good to be true.

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Gus Edwards, +155 (FanDuel)

Keaton Mitchell has been a great story and his rushing props are all greater than Edwards this week except his anytime touchdown odds. I’d guess Edwards has done nothing to lose his goal-line work and that if Mitchell scores, it’ll be from distance and not from inside the 5-yard line. Edwards has nine touchdowns in his last six games and had touchdowns in five straight games before being held out of the end zone against the Chargers Week 12.

Jerick McKinnon, +230 (FanDuel)

There’s a big discrepancy with the line for McKinnon this week and it’s as low as +130 in some places (you can get Clyde Edwards-Helaire at +140 on FanDuel). I went with McKinnon over CEH as he has three touchdowns receptions this season and while the latter should handle the goal-line work, there’s no guarantee that’ll happen. The Bills rank 20th against opposing running backs, so this is a good matchup for both running backs.

Player Props

Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -115 (DraftKings)

Herbert has a much better matchup this week at home against the Broncos after throwing no touchdowns last week in New England. Herbert has multi-touchdown passing games in six of 12 games this season, but it’s worth noting that three of the six games he didn’t throw multi-touchdowns were against the Ravens, Patriots and Jets, all teams who are top-five against the quarterback position. The Broncos rank 23rd against opposing quarterbacks and have allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns (20) this season.

Michael Gallup Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)

This is an interesting line because Gallup had zero receiving yards last week and exactly 13 the week before on Thanksgiving. The good news is he hit the over in eight straight games (including against the Eagles) before these last two duds and player 36 snaps last week (up from 18 the week before). Dak Prescott‘s over/under for passing yards is just under 300, and he had 374 the last two times these teams met. I also like his alternate receiving odds, which can be found on DraftKings (40+ receiving yards +425, 50+ receiving yards +850).

Noah Brown Over 38.5 Receiving Yards -110 (DraftKings)

This pick might be a bit odd considering Brown finished with zero catches for zero yards on two targets. and now has the toughest matchup in football for wide receivers facing the Jets. However, this isn’t a big line and Brown should see a lot more than two targets while Nico Collins likely won’t see 12 again. Brown normally plays out of the slot (78.5 percent, won’t see Sauce Gardner) although that could change with Tank Dell sidelined. 

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