When these two met on New Year’s Eve, Iowa State put on a big-time performance to pull out the win. However, these teams are on totally different paths, and our college basketball picks expect the Bears to get their revenge.
The Iowa State Cyclones travel to meet the Baylor Bears at Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas.
The Cyclones are on a four-game losing skid, including a stunning 72-69 setback against West Virginia last time out. That followed up a disappointing 61-50 loss to Oklahoma, and just like that Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament hopes look a lot less certain.
The Bears picked up a 74-68 road win against Oklahoma State last time out as a slight favorite. Baylor was able to carry over the momentum from an 81-72 win over ranked Texas.
This is the second meeting of the season, and it seems like a lifetime ago. Iowa State won 77-62 on New Year’s Eve in Ames as a 1.5-point underdog as the Over cashed.
Can ISU get back into the win column, or will the Bears bomb the Cyclones and push them further onto the bubble? We’ll discuss in our college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa State vs. Baylor on Saturday, March 4.
Iowa State vs Baylor best odds
Iowa State vs Baylor picks and predictions
The Cyclones have really hit the skids with four straight losses, and six setbacks across the past seven outings. At 16-6 back on February 4 — coming off a 68-53 rout of Kansas — things were looking up for Iowa State. It has since been swept by West Virginia, while also suffering a costly loss to lowly Oklahoma.
Offense has been a major issue for the Cyclones lately, bottoming out with a 31% (18 of 58) shooting night against Oklahoma.
It seems like an eternity, but Iowa State played one of its best games of the season on NYE against Baylor, winning 77-62. Gabe Kalscheur was the team’s best player with 23 points, while Caleb Grill went for 18 points, seven boards, and four assists. Both players hit five 3-pointers, and those two need to be special to pull the ‘Clones out of this nosedive.
Baylor shot just 38% (20-for-53) from the field, and just 23% (5-of-22) from behind the 3-point line, in that first meeting. The Bears also turned it over 19 times, and if you do that, you’ll lose most nights.
These are two teams headed in completely opposite directions lately, and it’s hard to envision Iowa State going down to Waco and suddenly getting well. Yes, ISU won the first meeting, but the outlooks for both teams have changed dramatically since.
While the underdog has cashed in five straight meetings, the No. 7 Bears are rolling along lately, while the Cyclones just can’t get out of their own way.
My best bet: Baylor -7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Best college basketball bonuses
Looking to do some college basketball betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Get one 25% profit boost for one college basketball parlay every day at Caesars! Opt-in Now
B) New users can bet $5 and get up to $200 in free bets at DraftKings! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Iowa State vs Baylor spread analysis
The Cyclones have not only been losing, but they’re not covering numbers, either. Iowa State has failed to cash in each of the past four games overall, while going 0-6 ATS in the past six games on the road.
It’s also 1-5 ATS in the past six tries against teams with a winning overall record, while going 0-6 ATS in the past six road outings against teams with a winning home record.
As far as the Bears are concerned, they’re 6-2 ATS across the past eight games overall, while going 6-2 ATS in the previous eight against teams with a winning overall record.
In addition, Baylor has protected its home floor, winning seven straight games since an OT setback on January 7 against Kansas State. That includes covers in four straight, and five of the past six at Ferrell Center.
In its most recent home win, Baylor shot lights out at 50% (25-for-50) against Texas in a clash of titans, while raining in nine triples. That masked an ugly 21-turnover performance, an area the Bears need to be much better.
Still, as poorly as Iowa State is playing, even if Baylor is a little careless with the rock, it should still be able to pick up a double-digit win and cover easily.
Covers college basketball betting tools
Iowa State vs Baylor Over/Under analysis
The Cyclones scored 69 points last time out in a home loss to West Virginia, and that was actually Iowa State’s best performance since February 15 when it had 70 points in a win over TCU.
Points have been hard to come by for ISU lately, going for just 59.0 ppg across the past six outings, which is well below the team’s season average of 68.3 ppg.
The Cyclones have hung in with their defense, allowing just 62.3 ppg to rank No. 22 in the nation. The defense has gone a little south lately, too, yielding 72 points in losses to both West Virginia and Texas — well above the team’s average.
The Under is still 5-1 in the past six games overall for I-State, and 12-4 in the past 16 games on the road.
For Baylor, the Over is 20-7-1 in the past 28 games against teams with a winning overall record. The Bears have ended up going for 71 or more points in seven of the past eight outings, although that’s a little down from the team’s 78.0 season average.
The Under looks pretty good, as Baylor’s offense is underperforming lately, it faces a tough Iowa State D, and the Cyclones are struggling to put up points. It’s the perfect Under storm, or cyclone, pun totally intended.
Iowa State vs Baylor betting trend to know
Baylor has covered four straight games at home, while Iowa State has failed to cover its past six games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Baylor.
Iowa State vs Baylor game info
|Location:||Ferrell Center, Waco, TX|
|Date:||Saturday, March 4, 2023|
|Tip-off:||12:00 p.m. ET|