Army vs Navy Odds & Prediction
Sat., December 9
3 p.m. ET
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
The Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen are set to write the 124th chapter of their historic rivalry on Saturday.
For the first time ever, the game will take place in Gillette Stadium from Foxborough, Massachusetts. The game celebrates the 250th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, along with the 225th anniversary of the first voyage of the USS Constitution.
Navy leads the series all-time series, 62-54-7, with Army winning five of the last seven games.
These two five-win teams will now battle for a share of the Commander-In-Chief Trophy.
Army will be led by head coach Jeff Monken, who enters his 11th rivalry game against the Midshipmen. Monken is responsible for the Black Knights’ resurgence in this game after Navy won 14 consecutive games dating back to 2002.
Navy, meanwhile, will complete its first season under head coach Brian Newberry, who had served as defensive coordinator since 2019.
Newberry looked to implement a new offense similar to that of Kennesaw State this season after current offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut served in the same role with the Owls last year.
With cut-blocks outside the tackle box being eliminated, wrinkles have been added to each triple option-based offense.
It’s West Point versus the Yard from Foxborough, as Navy looks to take back “America’s Game” after a double-overtime defeat in 2022.
Let’s take a look at the updated Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen odds and make a prediction for Saturday’s college football game.
The Black Knights come into the game on a heater, winning all three of their games in October.
The wins and losses are in lockstep with the performance of starting quarterback Bryson Daily. The sophomore has attempted 105 passes this season with contrasting results.
In five Army wins this season, Daily has failed to post a turnover-worthy play. Conversely, the quarterback has posted nine turnover-worthy plays in six losses.
A triple-option offense requires the quarterback to run, so ball security has also played a factor in the win-loss column for Army. Daily has yet to fumble in any of the Black Knights’ five wins, but he has six total fumbles on the season.
Army’s most explosive run concept has been off-tackle, as the Black Knights have moved away from the standard triple option out of the I-formation to a traditional inside zone.
The Black Knights have been explosive running off-tackle, finding the highest Success Rate on runs through the A and B gaps.
A look at Daily’s rush chart shows the biggest gains of the season have come outside the tackle box.
Defensive coordinator Nate Woody has struggled to stop opponents from producing Quality Drives. Army’s 3-4 personnel ranks near dead last in FBS in Havoc, Line Yards and pass rush.
Where the Black Knights have excelled is in opponent scoring opportunities. Army ranks 11th in Defensive Finishing Drives, limiting opposing points on drives extending beyond the 40-yard line. The Black Knights rank as one of the stingiest red-zone defenses, allowing just 15 touchdowns on 31 attempts by opposing teams.
The season started bleak for Newberry in his first campaign as head coach. Navy took a 42-3 loss to Notre Dame in Ireland — a game in which the Midshipmen closed as three-touchdown underdogs.
Navy would go on to lose to Memphis and South Florida in AAC play before notching its first FBS win over North Texas in October.
The quarterback position has been a rotation of players due to injury, experience and simply playing the hot hand.
Xavier Arline led Navy in this very game last season, ending this year with 42 passing attempts. Tai Lavatai was injured for the game a year ago but amassed the highest number of passing attempts at 75 this season. True freshman Braxton Woodson has also seen spot duty, appearing in four games this season.
While Arline has produced the most rushing yards of the group, Woodson has been the most explosive option on the season. The true freshman has created seven explosive runs along with 12 missed tackles.
While Army has pulled away from the traditional triple option attack, the Midshipmen still utilize it heavily.
Newberry has seen a flavor of the Kennesaw State rushing attack added, with run concepts including power, pull lead and man-blocking schemes.
The Navy offense has struggled to find any consistency in moving the chains or cashing in on scoring attempts, relying on explosives to provide the points.
The defense has been the saving grace in 2023, ranking top-20 in numerous categories from stopping the rush to Quality and Finishing Drives.
The Midshipmen boast the nation’s third-best red-zone defense — a complementary aspect to the 3-3-5 personnel that also ranks top-25 in stopping third-down conversions.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Army and Navy match up statistically:
Army Offense vs. Navy Defense
Navy Offense vs. Army Defense
Pace of Play / Other
|Special Teams SP+
|Seconds per Play
The forecast in Foxborough calls for minimal wind and precipitation, setting the stage for another classic football game from our service academies.
The bigger question is the number of points that will go on the board for each side.
In 2022, the Army-Navy rivalry went over the closing total for the first time in 17 years thanks to an assist from double overtime.
The key term in the statistic is “closing,” as the Army-Navy total used to open in the 50s before sinking to our present number of around four touchdowns.
The Navy offense has been lifeless in creating first downs, ranking 132nd in the nation.
Army held up defensively in a victory over triple option-based Air Force earlier this month. The Black Knights held the Falcons to an average third-down distance of 7.1 yards and didn’t allow a single rushing attempt to exceed 20 yards.
If there’s a glaring weakness, Army’s defense comes in at 116th in defending rush explosives. That number can be directly tied to bad tackling, as Navy ranks 116th in PFF tackle grading.
The Midshipmen will fail to piece together methodical drives but will have plenty of success in creating chunk plays on the ground. The Army defense has allowed explosives against opponents that utilize inside zone and man-blocking schemes — a rush concept often used by Navy.
Navy, meanwhile, will look to defend inside zone rushing attempts from the hybrid Army offense. Newberry’s defense has met the national average in terms of Success Rate and explosives when defending inside zone this season.
If Army’s ground game doesn’t find success at the line of scrimmage, Daily is expected to turn to the play-action pass against a Midshipmen defense that’s 75th in allowing pass explosives. Navy has posted a 53% Success Rate against play-action this season, allowing a big play on 13% of those attempts. Both numbers are right in line with the national average.
Essentially, the Navy defense must be locked in on Daily both through the air and on the ground.
The Action Network projection puts the total in the 30s, as scoring will be ultra-reliant on explosive plays. Army’s play-action passes and Navy’s triple option and man-rush concepts will each produce scores in this game — enough to push the total over.