12/2/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Hobart, Hobart Cup day

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Today’s Best BetToday’s Best Long Shot

The Tassie Racing Carnival continues at Hobart on Sunday, headlined by the Hobart Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Hobart Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Hobart Cup

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Back Me

3 Scardimalia (Bet Now: $4.80) should love the rise to 1400m. This mare resumed over 1200m here three weeks ago and was very good from near last on the turn here when fourth to Yanosha, clocking good late splits. Fitter and up in trip with Pires on, more upside/progression than most, think she’s the way to go in what looks an open and even contest.

Danger

1 Banca Tom (Bet Now: $3.20) is knocking on the door to win for Scott Brunton. Last few runs have come over 1200m here, the latest in the Yanosha race mentioned above when near the speed and chasing the field up to the leader. He tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there to run second. The query is 1400m, but potentially with a soft run on speed, he appeals.

Long Shot

Back up to 1400m I do like for 4 Coronation Veronic (Bet Now: $8.00). This mare was 1400m back to 1200m last time out in the Yanosha race. She was alongside Banca Tom in dragging the field up to the leader and stuck on really well in defeat to finish third. Think with a more patient steer, 1400m will be fine, and is one of the key threats.

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Back Me

Looks a perfect race for 11 Geegees Misty (Bet Now: $5.50). This filly has been pretty good in three runs this time in. She was 1100m to 1400m last time when wide no cover for the most part and was entitled to knock up but kept on and was quite good in defeat when fourth. Should get a lovely run in transit this time around and gets a big jockey upgrade with Froggy taking over.

Danger

12 Noxious (Bet Now: $16.00) is a coming maiden winner and it could easily come here. Caught the eye on debut over 1100m here before going to 1200m at Launceston where she did a bit of work to find a spot and that early burn just told but she was far from disgraced in defeat behind a smart one in Muscle Up. Racing like 1400m will be ideal and with a more patient steer, she’ll be effective.

Long Shot

7 Rue De Palais (Bet Now: $6.50) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Team McEvoy, he now finds himself with Siggy Carr. You look at his form from Victoria, gee it reads well for a race like this and I am thinking first up at 1400m tells me there is intent first up for the new stable and new connections. I’d watch the market and see what it does with him.

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Back Me

Happy to side with 2 Dantes (Bet Now: $2.90), who debuts for Scott Brunton. Echoes Of Heaven trained four year old that is on debut off the back of a trial here a couple of weeks ago when running third in a field of four and seemed to move well enough to my eye. Love the booking of Blake Shinn and despite drawn tricky, I think he is the one who could have the decent engine under the hood.

Danger

12 Princess Matoaka (Bet Now: $3.20) has returned in pretty good order for Team Ryan. She resumed over this trip at Launceston when wide and doing work in the run early but kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat behind Muscle Up, who looks hard to beat on Friday, so you’ll know come jump time here how strong that form is. Maps to get a good run in transit and McCoull takes over.

Long Shot

6 Lordosis (Bet Now: $34.00) is a Scott Brunton trained colt that is on debut. He’s the interesting one given he trialled at Longford on Tuesday and while he ran last of four, he seemed to move with something in hand and moved pretty well. Trialling and debuting within a week for a first starter I find interesting, and especially with this stable, I’d watch the market.

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Back Me

2 Jackjack (Bet Now: $18.00) is a thinker and it will be heart in the mouth if you follow him because he will loom and travel, but as soon as he comes off the bit, he half turns it up, and that was the case last time when finally winning the maiden but credit to him, he got the job done. If the inside gate is used to advantage, I think he is the key threat and the one to beat if Berserker runs in the Derby.

Danger

1 Charlie Bucket (Bet Now: $1.28) is a Glenn Stevenson trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since December 14 when giving them an absolute spanking over 1400m at Launceston with sustained speed coming to the fore in an awesome display. Tuned up for the return with a spank job win in a 1400m trial at Longford so I think he is ready to go. Just a tad too short in the market for my liking.

Long Shot

9 Vanity Star (Bet Now: $41.00) will be dangerous if he can a drag into the race. He ran in the race mentioned above by Jackjack where he got back to near last in the run and was never really a factor but was good to the line late in the piece behind Jackjack. Tricky draw once again, but if he is able to get a drag into the race and be within range on the turn, he’s good enough to threaten.

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Back Me

1 Gee Gee Enuf Speed (Bet Now: $5.50) on top for me. This mare has failed at the trip previously but to me, she is racing like she will eat it up now. Latest run was over the mile here three weeks ago but was excellent, launching late from off the speed when third to Noztrabeel. Gets Froggy aboard and from the gate, she should land in a plum spot and prove hard to beat.

Danger

2 True Scotsman (Bet Now: $4.40) is knocking on the door to win. Did more than enough two back on the Devonport Synthetic before going to 2100m at Launceston two weeks ago and kept on in a good effort when second to American Jewel, beaten narrowly. Darmanin sticks and with Winkers on, hopefully that will sharpen him up and overall, he finds a winnable race.

Long Shot

7 Costero (Bet Now: $9.00) is the proven stayer in the race and will be strong late on a track he tends to save his best for. He ran in the American Jewel race mentioned above where he got back in the run and was good late to run fourth, beaten just over a length. Interesting with the tinkering of the gear to try and get something more out of him and if he gets a drag into the race, he’ll be dangerous.

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Back Me

1 The Inevitable (Bet Now: $1.50) is one of the best to ever come from Tasmania and he clearly looks the one to beat here. He is around five weeks between runs since winning the Tasmanian Stakes over 1600m, sprouting wings late to win and win impressively. He is a good mile but for mine, is a gun 1400m horse, so fresh legs and back to that trip here, I think he’s comfortably the best on the program.

Danger

8 Rebel Factor (Bet Now: $4.20) is the key and perhaps only threat to the champ. Game second two back in The Conquering behind The Inevitable before going to 1200m in the Ladbrokes Stakes where he was dynamic in winning despite sitting wide no cover for the trip. He showed two back he can measure up. Just needs luck from a tricky gate.

Long Shot

5 Alpine Wolf (Bet Now: $16.00) should be suited back in trip and is a must for exotics. He ran in the Devonport Cup last time where he got a fair way back in the run and was never really a threat but didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece behind Swoop Dog. I think with an economical run in transit, he can definitely finish top four.

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Back Me

There is plenty going for 4 Street Tough (Bet Now: $9.50) to say he can run a much improved race. He resumed around a month ago on the Devonport Synthetic where he was dragged back to near last and was essentially a barrier trial so forgive and forget. Back on a track he loves, Blinkers on, Froggy on, good second up record…I think he sets up to run a massive race.

Danger

1 Algernon (Bet Now: $2.80) saves his best for Hobart and looks to have returned pretty well. Resumed over this track/distance where he was back from the gate and made up good ground late in the straight when second to Dunbrody Power, who goes around on Friday, so you’ll know come jump time here how strong that form is. With his record at the track, he has to be respected.

Long Shot

3 Fivefingerdiscount (Bet Now: $16.00) is a son of Pins that resumes for Joel Flannery. He had a two run prep in Victoria to end a Winter/Spring prep, which ended with a down the track effort at Mornington on Grand Final Day behind La Caresse. Has trialled well leading in and can sprint well fresh so I’d watch the market and see what it does with him.

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Back Me

Great each way bet in the Cup here in the shape of 4 Glass Warrior (Bet Now: $14.00) for John Blacker. Strong win two back in the Brighton Cup before racing three weeks ago in the Summer Cup at WFA and worked home with real purpose late in the piece when three lengths away from Swoop Dog. Can settle much closer in the run from the gate and back to a handicap, double figures is more than enticing.

Danger

1 Spirit Ridge (Bet Now: $3.20) is the class of the field and class is going to carry him a long way. Strong on speed win at Flemington two back before going to the Australia Day Cup where he was near the front and doing work. I liked the way he toughed it out in the straight when second to surprise winner Chalk Stream. Shinn is back aboard, lands on speed, tough, in form, hard to beat.

Long Shot

7 White Hawk (Bet Now: $34.00) is one I could entertain for wider exotics. He carried a big weight last Sunday in the Sydeston Cup and I thought did a pretty good job in defeat behind Super Swoop after trying to make a sustained run from near last. He tends to run better at Hobart than Launceston, so in that regard, he is suited and while I doubt he wins, he is a first four threat.

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Back Me

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 3 Rich Clan (Bet Now: $5.00). Market said he had three legs when resuming over 1200m at Hobart back on December 30 when near the speed and tried hard but condition just gave way late behind Laylow Pluck, who has gone right on with it since so the form reads really well and up to 1400m, he appeals.

Danger

2 Freak On A Lead (Bet Now: $9.00) can run a much improved race here. He resumed over 1200m here where he looked like he needed the run and that’s how it panned out behind Gee Gee True Story. Fitter and up to 1400m, if he gets luck from the tricky gate, I think he has the runs on the board to give this a shake in what looks a winnable race.

Long Shot

8 Hellot (Bet Now: $71.00) can be a big improver here for Scott Brunton. He hasn’t raced since December 30 over this track/distance when tailed off last behind Zewinna where he didn’t pull up 100% post race so he had excuses. Tick over trial was decent enough to the eye and the efforts prior suggested he could measure up at a price, so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 The Inevitable

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 11 Geegees Misty

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Glass Warrior

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7

Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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